Divided we stand!

Although Babis clearly began considering a presidential run as soon as he lost the October 2021 parliamentary election – if only to try to escape his legal problems – suspicion grew over the summer that, with polls pointing at a probable defeat, he would get a surrogate to stand in the presidential election in his stead.

That assumption was only strengthened when his ANO party flopped in the autumn’s Senate elections. That illustrated that while Babis and his party enjoy strong core support of around 30 per cent, the billionaire is such a polarising figure that expanding his reach to win over 50 per cent of the vote in any two-round election would be a huge challenge.

While polls suggest Babis has a strong chance of being one of the two candidates to progress from the first round of voting on January 12-13, he’s also forecast to lose heavily in the second round vote a fortnight later to either retired general Petr Pavel or the economics professor Danuse Nerudova – both liberal democratic rivals.

Babis is wagering that he can turn this weakness into a strength, persuading an array of populists, illiberals and extremists to back him as the opponent of the “liberal elites” that he claims control the current government.

It’s a tough ask given the disparate groups that sit on that side of the political fence, but the billionaire is eyeing a political divide in Czech society that has been widened by the war in Ukraine and cost-of-living crisis.

“An extremely vicious campaign that widens the polarisation in society could help Babis succeed,” believes Dr Sean Hanley, associate professor in Comparative Central and East European Politics at University College London.

Toxic to some

Polarisation in Czech society has been accelerating since the global financial crisis of 2008, which helped spur those struggling to reap the benefits of the country’s post-Communist Western orientation to question the benefits of liberal democracy, the capitalist economic system, and EU and NATO membership.

A collapse in support for mainstream parties, which had for years abused the trust of the electorate by engaging in massive corruption, soon followed. From the rubble rose Babis.

Despite his government’s mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic and numerous financial controversies, the solid core of support for his technocratic populism corralled centrist and rightwing parties into a self-styled “liberal democratic” bloc.

The triumph of this five-party coalition in elections in October 2021, and subsequent push by Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s cabinet to reassert Czechia’s Western credentials, has been heralded as a victory for liberal democracy. However, the country’s direction remains contested.

Babis’s ANO remains by far the largest political party in parliament, holding 72 of the 200 seats, and continues to lead the polls with support of around 30 per cent. Both numbers are more than double what Fiala’s Civic Democrats (ODS) can muster.

Yet at the same time, as the Senate election results illustrated, ANO’s support is capped. His core support aside, Babis is toxic to most other voters.

But not all, perhaps. Around 20 per cent or so of votes at the 2021 election went to fringe parties that failed to cross the 5 per cent threshold to enter parliament. Hence, there’s a contingent of around a million people that are unrepresented in the national parliament.

This reservoir of potential support has clearly caught Babis’s eye, especially after large street protests were held over the last few months calling on the government for increased financial support for vulnerable citizens.

“Babis hopes to mobilise these anti-establishment voters to support his bid for the presidency,” believes political analyst Jiri Pehe.

Balancing act

However, the billionaire will have to be careful. These million or so floating voters are a mixed bag running the gamut from hard left to far right, and featuring populists, nationalists, extremists and other anti-system forces.

The recent rallies have reflected this fragmentation. While it’s clear that many marchers were motivated by simple fears that they’ll struggle to keep the heating on this winter, extremist groups also tacked on a pro-Kremlin agenda regarding the war in Ukraine and a wide sweep of illiberal narratives, such as demands to exit the EU and NATO or quash the independence of public media.

“These people are anti-system, and Babis is too mainstream for many of them,” says Pehe. “He’ll be trying to convince this cohort to vote for him as a vote against the government. But he’ll have to take care not to lose the support of ANO’s more moderate electorate.”

Therefore, Babis will need to choose the messages he sends prudently. Doubling down on criticism of Fiala’s handling of the cost-of-living and energy crises, he’ll hope to brand himself as the anti-government candidate without pushing too far into pro-Russian sentiment.

“He will probably focus on topics other than Ukraine,” predicts Jindrich Sídlo, host of the satirical news show Sťastny pondeli, in an episode titled: “Babis’ Russian roulette”.

“He will say that [his main challengers] are government candidates, and he will start criticising the government through them,” Sidlo adds.

In this tweet below, amid photos of him meeting global leaders, Babis emphasises his experience and status on the world stage, claiming that “I’m not afraid of the powerful”.

Although keen proponents of liberal democracy, both of Babis’s main opponents, Pavel and Nerudova, have sought to maintain some distance from the governing coalition, clearly wary of the pressures currently stalking it. Fiala has given each tepid support but has withheld full endorsement.

That appears to be working for the moment. Both candidates are starting to face questions regarding their past – Pavel’s history in the Communist Party; a potential scandal at a university under Nerudovs’s leadership – but currently, polls suggest either would comfortably see Babis off in a second round.

Yet whether the selling point of not being Babis will be enough to get either over the line is a question that is starting to reverberate. Both Pavel and Nerudova are running rather bland campaigns and concern is rising that they may not have the substance to mobilise the liberal democratic base.

Babis, meanwhile, is already cranking up the messaging to try to mop up what anti-government support he can.

“The key phrase in Babis’s campaign already is ‘helping people’, which is code for cheap eggs and energy,” says Hanley. “We may then see other coded messages emerge to try to speak to more extreme elements.”

It’s not the only tactic that the billionaire is borrowing from Zeman’s successful campaign in 2018, when he trounced what had initially appeared a robust challenge by Jiri Drahos, a consensual candidate of the liberal political establishment.

Like Zeman five years ago, Babis is refusing to take part in debates ahead of the first round – a bid to brand himself as an outsider and an authentic alternative to the establishment.

“Although Babis is not an extremist, his populist approach, and the fact that he’s likely to be competing with a liberal democratic opponent, stands to make the race something of a referendum on the liberal democratic government,” says Pehe.

And despite the disappointing results for him in the recent Senate election, it is possible that if Babis can correctly read the traditionally highly charged presidential vote, he could pull off a victory that with little more than three weeks to go still looks a long shot.

As it was in 2018, turnout will likely be key, suggests Hanley. And like Drahos, Pavel or Nerudov could struggle if their opponent manages to raise the political temperature and lower the tone – both specialities of the billionaire.

“[Babis] should not be underestimated given his extensive political experience and his influence over some of the key media outlets,” warns Andrius Tursa of Teneo Intelligence.

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