CEE MARKETS-Forint stays strong in face of technical recession, CEZ jumps

PRAGUE, Feb 14 (Reuters) – The forint gained on Tuesday, sticking close to a more than eight-month high as it shook off data showing Hungary’s economy slipped into a technical recession, with markets strong before U.S. inflation data to be released later in the day.

Central Europe’s currencies have been caught up in U.S. dollar moves in recent trading, and on Tuesday a weaker dollar boosted appetite in the European Union’s emerging east.

It comes even as data on Tuesday around the region showed the toll high inflation was having in the region, with Hungary following the Czech Republic into a technical recession in the fourth quarter and Poland falling quickly on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

The forint EURHUF= had gained 0.2% to 382.25 to the euro by 1035 GMT, keeping up a hot streak seen this year as it has risen already 4.5%, supported by its higher yield compared to peers in the region.

The forint has been shored up since last October as the central bank has lifted its key policy rate to 13% and a one-day deposit rate at 18%.

Data from the central bank on Tuesday showed Hungary’s current account deficit narrowed to 694 million euros in December from 1.699 billion euros in November, giving some currency relief.

In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= edged up 0.1% with data showing the economy falling on a quarterly basis and year-on-year growth slowing to 2.0% in the fourth quarter.

Romania’s leu EURRON= was steady after economic growth was stronger than expected in the fourth quarter.

Other economic data from the region showed economies holding up still, even as high inflation that is sapping consumer demand should slow growth sharply this year, analysts say.

“The falls in GDP in Central and Eastern Europe shown in the Q4 figures probably mark the worst of the regional downturn, but we still think that activity will (at best) only stagnate over the first half of this year,” Capital Economics said.

On stock markets, bourses mostly followed global peers up.

Czech majority state-owned utility CEZ CEZP.PR jumped a second straight day and hit a fresh more than five-month high amid ongoing speculation into a possible restructuring. Its gains pushed the Prague index .PX to a nearly one-year high.

CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1135 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest

Previous

Daily

Change

bid

close

change

in 2023

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

23.7650

23.7440

-0.09%

+1.65%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

382.2500

383.1500

+0.24%

+4.50%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.7840

4.7900

+0.13%

-1.97%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9005

4.9018

+0.03%

+0.86%

EURHRK=

Croatian kuna

EURHRK=

7.5330

7.5365

+0.05%

+0.05%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.2000

117.3000

+0.09%

+0.09%

Note: daily change

calculated from

1800 CET

Latest

Previous

Daily

Change

close

change

in 2023

.PX

Prague

.PX

1411.59

1398.1000

+0.96%

+17.46%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

46583.56

46233.47

+0.76%

+6.37%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

1861.07

1853.29

+0.42%

+3.85%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

12312.61

12336.14

-0.19%

+5.57%

.SBITOP

Ljubljana

.SBITOP

1184.96

1181.23

+0.32%

+12.98%

.CRBEX

Zagreb

.CRBEX

2151.68

2134.62

+0.80%

+718.85%

.BELEX15

Belgrade

.BELEX15

872.23

872.23

+0.00%

+5.77%

.SOFIX

Sofia

.SOFIX

608.66

612.35

-0.60%

+1.19%

Yield

Yield

Spread

Daily

(bid)

change

vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic

spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

5.6900

-0.1330

+291bps

-13bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

4.9330

-0.0220

+252bps

-1bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.6010

-0.0140

+225bps

+1bps

Poland

PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

6.1880

-0.1270

+341bps

-12bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

6.1190

-0.0330

+371bps

-2bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

6.1230

-0.0380

+377bps

-2bps

FORWARD

3×6

6×9

9×12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

7.19

7.01

6.45

7.20

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

15.08

13.77

12.29

16.13

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

7.00

6.89

6.54

6.92

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices
Source

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