The Czech Republic’s presidential election this weekend is being viewed as a bellwether for populism in Central Europe. As Czechs prepare to replace longtime populist President Milos Zeman, Gallup surveys suggest many are ready for some type of change. The data shows Czechs are more aligned with the European Union and NATO than they have been in years and view Russia with disdain. They are also largely dissatisfied with their country’s leadership and view their government as rife with corruption.

Three candidates have a good chance of becoming the country’s second popularly elected president, which is largely a ceremonial role: Andrej Babis, Danuse Nerudova and Petr Pavel. None of the three is expected to garner enough votes in the first round of the election, so the top two vote-getters are likely to face each other in a runoff later in January.

Media owner and former Prime Minister Babis is a familiar face to Czech voters. Like his political ally Zeman, Babis is a populist politician. While he was acquitted of fraud days before the election, Babis still carries the baggage of being ousted as prime minister in the 2021 general election.

Babis’ main two opponents, Nerudova and Pavel, represent vastly different views on foreign policy. Pavel, a career soldier and former chairman of NATO’s military committee, is promising to “restore order and peace” to his country. Economist Nerudova has been campaigning for her vision of change, modernization and capitalism.

Czechs have been gradually warming to EU leadership since 2018. In 2022, nearly half of Czechs (49%) approved of the leadership of the EU, likely nudged slightly higher last year, given that the Czech Republic held the six-month rotating presidency of the EU. Czechs viewed NATO even more positively, with 61% approving of the alliance’s leadership.

Although far-right protesters rallied against NATO and the EU, a scant few Czechs approve of Russia’s leadership. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Czechs’ approval of Russia’s leadership dropped to a record low of 5%.

Despite the fact that the majority of Czechs view government graft as widespread under the current and previous leadership, most Czechs still believe in the overall political process. When asked about the honesty of elections, nearly two in three (65%) said they are confident in their country’s electoral process.

In conclusion, this presidential election in the Czech Republic will be a significant event that will indicate whether the country will move towards maturing European liberal democratic politics or towards populist, nationalist and authoritarian politics. The president may not hold executive powers, but they can help or hurt the current government’s policies. As Czechs are largely dissatisfied with their country’s leadership, it will be interesting to see which direction they choose.

Article by Prague Forum